Friday, February 15, 2008

McCain backs in

Ezra has a very intersting post up with a comparison of the primary systems of the two parties. As you're probably aware, most of the Republican primaries are winner take all, whereas all the Democratic primaries (and caucuses) award delegates proportionally. The interesting result is that under a winner-take all system, Clinton and Obama would be in roughly the same position. However, under a proportional system, the Republican race would be even closer than the Democratic race. (Chart by Ezra, from Monkey Cage) Now, some people in comments have complained that this is too hypothetical, as candidates tailor their campaign strategy based on the system in place. True, but I really have a hard time believing McCain could have done much better regardless. He's been squeaking out wins over Romney and Huckabee as it is. The really interesting thing about this is that it really does illustrate that most of the Republican party doesn't want McCain. Of course, the same could be said of both Romney and Huckabee. Maybe it does help them, as the divisions in their party do seem to be much deeper than those on our side, and this gives McCain time to woo people, rather than going toe-to-toe with Romney for the next 3 or 4 months.

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

M,
'shift here. I think the comparison argues strongly that the GOP got what it wanted: an answer, and early. Personally, I hope the Dems change their system after this nail-biter to a statewide proportional system, which would end the silliness of a 59%-41% vote in a Congressional district getting each candidate 2 delegates.

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